The buzz is growing that China’s ambitious $137 billion Medog Hydropower Station is poised to become the world’s largest hydropower facility. The China Brahmaputra dam project, rising on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet, is framed by Chinese media as a landmark in green energy progress. Yet for downstream riparian nations like India and Bangladesh, it sparks critical concerns.
The Brahmaputra River, known as the Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet, is a lifeline for millions. Whoever controls its headwaters holds influence over downstream survival and regional balance. This reality prompted Chinese geologist Fan Xiao to warn.
“In view of the immense negative impact on the ecological and social environments in the Yarlung Tsangpo Great Bend, and the southeastern Tibetan region, it becomes clear that pursuing hydropower development in this area may not be worth the cost.”
As a business strategist with 30 years of mass communication expertise, Me and my team examines why the Medog Hydropower station is more than just an infrastructure development. The construction of the China Brahmaputra Dam is reshaping South Asia’s water politics.
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Yarlung Tsangpo-Brahmaputra-Jamuna: The River System Powering South Asia
The Brahmaputra River, called the Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet, is one of the largest river systems in South Asia. It flows from China’s Tibet Autonomous Region, through Bhutan and India, and reaches Bangladesh as the Jamuna River.
Brahmaputra River Basin: Geographic Profile
The majestic and powerful Brahmaputra River Basin shapes regional water dynamics and sustains the livelihoods of millions. The Brahmaputra river basin covering about 580,000 square kilometers: defines critical ecological and geopolitical landscapes.
- China: 293,000 square kilometers
- India: 194,000 square kilometers
- Bhutan: 45,500 square kilometers
- Bangladesh: 47,000 square kilometers
This transboundary river is essential component for ensuring the region’s stability. The journey of Yarlung Tsangpo river begins in the west part of Tibetan Autonomous Region. Beginning at the Chemayungdung Glacier in the Kailash Range, it flows through the world’s deepest canyon.
Often dubbed “the Everest of rivers” for its unmatched flow and steep gradient. The iconic bend, often called the “Siang Loop” or “Siang Bend,” marks where the Yarlung Tsangpo River from Tibet crosses into Indian territory and becomes the Siang River before flowing downstream as the Brahmaputra. In Assam, it becomes the Brahmaputra. In Bangladesh, it turns into the Jamuna and merges with the Padma and Meghna before reaching the Bay of Bengal.
Importance for Agriculture, Water, and Fisheries
The Brahmaputra is a lifeline for agriculture, drinking water, and fisheries. More than 130 million people across China, India, and Bangladesh depend on its flow, especially in regions like Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. Additionally, approximately 70% of Bangladesh is prone to flooding each year, amplifying its vulnerability. A top geological expert has voiced deep concerns about these growing risks.
“The Brahmaputra’s lean season flow is critical — any reduction will have disproportionately severe impacts- Professor Nayan Sharma, Associate Professor, Dept of Water Resources, IIT Roorkee
The river’s seasonal flow supports key highly prozed fish species like Hilsa (Ilish) and Mahseer. It also brings nutrient-rich sediment that keeps farmlands fertile. Any disruption — such as upstream dams or altered flow patterns , could hurt ecosystems, harm food security, and disrupt local economies.
The Mega-Dam Project: China’s Power Play
China’s Medog Hydropower Station is set to become the world’s largest hydropower project. It will cost around $137 billion. The dam is designed to generate between 60 to 70 gigawatts of power. This is three times larger than the famous Three Gorges Dam, according to reports by the Economic Times and NASA.
The Chinese Dragon: Promises and Skepticism
China media presents the Medog project as part of its national green energy goals. The planned Medog Hydropower Station in Tibet is set to produce an impressive 300 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity each year. Chinese sources claim that this vast electricity output and the resulting opportunities are expected to boost the economy of the remote Tibetan region.
China promotes the Medog project as a key element of its national green energy strategy. China’s 14th Five-Year Plan explicitly aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 while promoting economic development in the remote Tibetan region.
But experts remain skeptical. Professor Nayan Sharma, Associate Professor at IIT Roorkee, warns,
“Without a water-sharing treaty, India remains in a huge disadvantageous position.”
Fan Xiao, a prominent Chinese geologist and environmental expert, also challenges the project’s claimed climate benefits. He argues the dam is not necessary to meet emissions goals and may bring more environmental harm than benefits.
Approval Timeline and Future Plans
The Chinese government granted formal approval for the Medog Hydropower Station in 2024. Construction of China Brahmaputra Dam is expected to begin by 2029. The dam is planned to become operational by 2033.
Environmental Considerations
Mega hydropower projects are often hailed as engineering marvels. But their environmental and planetary consequences raise serious concerns. Moving such massive amounts of water reshapes ecosystems, alters sediment flows, and impacts communities across borders.
“The Three Gorges Dam’s sheer scale has altered the distribution of Earth’s mass, showing how mega-dams can reshape planetary dynamics.” — NASA
NASA has documented that China’s earlier Three Gorges Dam slightly slowed Earth’s rotation by 0.06 microseconds due to the enormous redistribution of water mass. This serves as a stark reminder: mega-dams can affect not only local environments but even global systems. For riparian states like India and Bangladesh, upstream projects bring both local risks and cross-border challenges.
The Medog project is part of China’s wider push for hydropower generation. It is one piece of a larger geopolitical puzzle that experts say could reshape regional power dynamics.
China Brahmaputra Dam: Downstream Risks and Vulnerability
The Medog Hydropower Station presents serious risks for downstream countries like India and Bangladesh. The hydrological, ecological, and socio-economic impacts of such a mega-dam extend far beyond the dam site.
Hydrological Impacts
The biggest fear is not just water diversion, but dam failure, especially under extreme climate or seismic events. Nilanjan Ghosh and Sayanangshu Modak1, Indian hydrologists, warn,
“The primary risk is not water diversion but dam failure, particularly in the face of extreme climatic and seismic events.”
Reduced water flow during the dry season could also create severe shortages for farmers and households. At the same time, the sudden release of water in monsoons could cause flash floods, overwhelming already vulnerable communities downstream.
Ecological Threats
The Brahmaputra is rich in sediments that fertilize its vast delta. But dams disrupt this natural sediment flow. Robert Wasson, a renowned geomorphologist2, cautions,
“Reduced sediment supply could accelerate delta erosion, damaging the vast Brahmaputra-Jamuna delta.”
This loss threatens the delicate balance of the region’s biodiversity, including fish species like Hilsa and Mahseer. It also increases the risk of coastal erosion, making Bangladesh’s low-lying areas even more vulnerable to sea-level rise.
Socio-Economic Stakes
The livelihoods of millions depend on the Brahmaputra’s seasonal patterns. Indian experts estimate that
“Two million fishermen in India and Bangladesh could lose their livelihoods”
Farmlands fed by the river’s floodwaters may become less fertile if sediment flow is reduced. Displacement risks also rise, especially if flooding or erosion affects riverbank communities.
Bangladesh’s Salinity and Erosion Concerns
Bangladesh, located at the tail end of the river, faces compounded threats. Reduced upstream flow could increase saltwater intrusion into freshwater areas, damaging crops and drinking water supplies. Riverbank erosion, already a major problem, may intensify, threatening homes and infrastructure.
“Every year in Bangladesh, thousands of hectares of land crumble into the rivers that wind through this South Asian nation, swallowing homes and pushing families away from their rural villages.” — The New Humanitarian
Downstream water security is no longer just an environmental issue. It poses serious socio-economic and geopolitical challenge to riparian states. With the Medog Dam, the stakes are rising for all nations that share the Brahmaputra.
Geopolitical Tensions: China Brahmaputra Dam
The Medog Hydropower Station is not just an energy project — it is a potential geopolitical gamechanger. For India and Bangladesh, China’s upstream control signals a new era of hydro-hegemony.
Water Weaponization and Regional Power Shifts
China’s upstream position gives it significant power over the river flows that downstream countries depend on. Ameya Pratap Singh, a political scientist at the University of Oxford, warns:
“China’s damming of its Tibetan rivers effectively gives it a chokehold on India’s economy.”
Pema Khandu, Chief Minister of Arunachal Pradesh, reinforces these concerns, warning that China’s upstream control poses not just economic threats but strategic dangers:
“This is a big threat… they could unleash destructive water bombs.”
Victor Zhikai Gao, vice president of the Beijing-based Center for China and Globalization, issued a threat. In an interview with India Today, Gao hinted at Beijing’s firm grip over the Brahmaputra — a river critical to India’s water security — particularly after India’s suspension of the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan following the Pahalgam terror attack.
“Don’t do onto others what you don’t want done to you.”
Following India’s suspension of the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan after the Pahalgam terror attack. This subtle arm-twisting signals China’s intent to back its “all-weather friend” while reminding India of its upstream leverage. These escalating tensions have pushed India to pursue its own countermeasures.
China-India Politics: The “Dam-for-Dam” Strategy
In response, India has revived its own mega-dam plans, such as the Lower Siang Dam in Arunachal Pradesh. This “dam-for-dam” strategy aims to counterbalance China’s control, but it risks escalating tensions further. Each new project feeds into a larger arms race — but with water.
These Indian projects, especially along the Siang River, reflect a growing determination to safeguard national water interests. But as India and China double down on competing dam initiatives, the ripple effects extend beyond their borders.
For Bangladesh, positioned at the very end of this vast river system, the stakes are even higher — caught between the ambitions of two powerful upstream neighbors.
Bangladesh’s Precarious Diplomatic Position
Bangladesh finds itself caught in the middle. As a lower riparian state, it depends on both India and China for upstream cooperation. Without a comprehensive water-sharing treaty, Bangladesh faces uncertainty over future water flows, sediment deposits, and flood risks.
Belt and Road Initiative’s Strategic Context
The Medog Dam fits into China’s broader Belt and Road Initiative. It is part of a larger strategy to expand China’s infrastructure dominance and geopolitical influence across Asia. For neighboring countries, the dam is not just about electricity — it is about power.
The Governance Gap: Why Treaties and Diplomacy Matter
As a lower riparian state with considerable established user rights to the waters of the trans-border rivers, India has consistently conveyed its concerns to China. Indian authorities have urged Beijing to ensure that the interests of downstream nations like India and Bangladesh are not harmed by upstream projects.
Existing Frameworks and Recent Dialogues
India and China currently engage through mechanisms like Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) and the Expert Level Mechanism (ELM), established in 2006, to discuss transboundary river issues. India maintains a long-standing water-sharing agreements with Bangladesh.
Following China’s formal announcement of the Medog Hydropower Station, India officially registered its concerns on December 30, 2024. The government emphasized the need for transparency and consultation. This led to a Foreign Secretary–Vice Foreign Minister meeting in Beijing on January 26–27, 2025.
Both sides agreed to hold an early ELM meeting to resume hydrological data sharing and strengthen cooperation on cross-border rivers.
Limitations and the Call for Stronger Governance
Despite these dialogues, there is no binding water-sharing treaty between China and India. Existing frameworks only cover basic data exchange, leaving India vulnerable to unilateral upstream decisions.
“India and Bangladesh must push for legally binding water-sharing agreements with China to ensure transparency and equitable water distribution- The Lowy Institute
Global institutions emphasize that the challenges of managing transboundary rivers like the Brahmaputra demand more than local solutions. They call for shared responsibility, fairness, and sustainability in shaping long-term water governance frameworks.
“Governing these waters in a cooperative, equitable and sustainable manner is critical for sustainable development, conflict prevention, peace and climate change resilience.” — United Nations
This strengthens the call to action by showing that global institutions back these recommendations, not just regional voices. The Carnegie Endowment3 discusses China’s dominant position in transboundary river flows and the crises looming large.
“China is the largest source of transboundary river flows, including many, such as the Brahmaputra River, that flow from the Tibetan Plateau to much of South Asia.” — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Stronger transboundary water governance4 is no longer optional. It is essential for ensuring long-term peace, ecological balance, and water security for all nations sharing the Brahmaputra River and beyond.
Pathways Forward: Recommendations for a Shared Future
To address the risks of China’s Medog Dam, demand urgent domestic action and regional cooperation. India must strengthen its water infrastructure while championing multilateral treaties, environmental transparency. There is a greater need for shared benefit frameworks to secure the Brahmaputra’s future for millions who depend on its life-giving flow.
India’s Domestic Countermeasures
India is pushing ahead with the Siang Upper Multipurpose Project. SUMP is a 11,000 MW hydroelectric dam in Arunachal Pradesh would serve as a direct counter to China’s Medog project.
Experts also call for the construction of many smaller, medium- and low-height water storage infrastructures on Brahmaputra tributaries to store monsoon water for dry-season use.
“India must urgently construct numerous medium and low-height water storage infrastructures on tributaries.” — Prof. Nayan Sharma, IIT Roorkee
Multilateral Diplomatic Strategy
India must also strengthen diplomacy. This includes pushing for a legally binding water-sharing treatywithChina, Bhutan, and Bangladesh. Experts recommend shifting from conflict over water allocation to a benefit-sharing framework focused on hydropower, flood control, and trade.
Reframing the negotiation from water allocation to shared benefits can create a positive-sum collaboration.
Regional Risk Management and Governance
India should demand expanded environmental transparency, including full Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) for all mega-dam projects. Joint regional risk assessments across all riparian states are vital. Finally, exploring international mediation frameworks, such as the UN Water Convention, can help secure fair governance and dispute resolution.
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FAQ: China Brahmaputra Dam?
What is the average discharge of the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna river system?
The Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna system ranks second globally in average discharge, at ~44,000 m³/s. The Brahmaputra River alone contributes about 50 percent, highlighting its critical role in South Asia’s water systems, hydrological balance, and regional water politics.
What makes the Brahmaputra River unique among world rivers?
The Brahmaputra is one of the few rivers that exhibit a tidal bore. It’s also a classic example of a braided river, making it highly dynamic, prone to flooding, and ecologically rich across its cross-border stretch.
Why is Transboundary water governance critical for South Asia’s future?
Effective transboundary water governance ensures shared access, reduces conflict, and protects millions who depend on the Brahmaputra for farming, fisheries, and drinking water — especially as climate change increases the region’s water-related risks.
Conclusion
The Medog Hydropower Station is more than just an energy project. The mega China Brahmaputra Dam is reshaping South Asia’s water, politics, and future.
The construction of mega-dam highlights the rising tensions between upstream control and downstream vulnerability. For India, Bangladesh, and Bhutan, China’s mega dam raises immense stakes for regional stability and water security. Without strong, cooperative governance, the Brahmaputra risks becoming the next major geopolitical tension in the region.
The urgent need now is for diplomacy, transparent data sharing, and legally binding water-sharing frameworks. Only then can the China Brahmaputra dam avoid deepening South Asia’s water politics and threatening the shared future of transboundary water governance.
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About the Author: Anuj Mahajan is a Mass Communication Specialist, ICF Certified Coach & Corporate Trainer. Motivational Speaker / NLP Lifecoach. With expertise spanning filmmaking, business coaching, motivational speaking, blog writing, and authoring, he embodies versatility and mastery across diverse fields.
Chief Operating Officer: Nuteq Entertainment Pvt Ltd, and Co-Founder: Trendvisionz – A Premier Digital Marketing Agency in India
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Additional Resource:
- Modak, S., & Ghosh, N. (2025). China–India hydropolitics on the Brahmaputra: Why do hard data need to dominate over existing rhetoric? International Journal of Water Resources Development. ↩︎
- Wasson, R. J. (2003). A sediment budget for the Ganga–Brahmaputra catchment. Current Science, 84(8), 1041–1047. ↩︎
- Vishwanath, R. (2018, October). The geopolitics of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. ↩︎
- United Nations. (2023, March 24). Transboundary Water Management Cooperation Crucial for Sustainable Development ↩︎
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