When I first heard the heartbreaking news about the terror attack in Pahalgam. My mind immediately went to the families. Many of them likely on a peaceful holiday, hoping to create lasting memories. The idea that a joyful trip could end in such devastating violence fills me with deep regret. Times like these show the delicate thread by which peace often hangs. And how quickly nations must respond. It was in this emotional backdrop that India made a historic move. Suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, an agreement that had stood resilient for over six decades.
As a media professional with more than thirty years of experience, and as a business strategist and ICF-certified coach. I recognize the significance of such decisions. Pakistan’s immediate reaction marks a critical shift.
In this article, I take you through the history and the legal dimensions. Join me and my team as we explore the future impact of the Indus Waters Treaty and the Simla Agreement. These moments could redefine India-Pakistan relations.
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Setting the Stage: What Led to the Current Diplomatic Crisis
The terror attack in Pahalgam on April 22, 2025, was more than an isolated act of violence. It triggered a chain reaction that has deeply altered the trajectory of India-Pakistan relations. As I followed the developments closely, the rapid escalation reminded me how fast diplomacy can shift when emotions, history, and national security converge. Let’s first revisit the key events that brought us to this critical point.
The Pahalgam Attack: A Brief Recap
On the evening of April 22, gunmen opened fire in Baisaran, a meadow valley and a popular tourist spot in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir. The attack claimed the lives of 26 civilians, including women and children, many of whom were visiting with their families. Disturbing visuals of the tragedy flooded social media, stirring nationwide grief, outrage, and urgent demands for action.
Internationally, countries including the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia condemned the attack. Urging restraint but recognizing India’s right to self-defence.
India’s Swift Response
In an unprecedented move, India announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty on April 24. This marked the first time in history that India formally placed the treaty, signed in 1960, in abeyance. Union Jal Shakti Minister C.R. Paatil, following a high-level meeting with Home Minister Amit Shah, stated,
“A roadmap has been prepared. We discussed three options, and the government is working on short-term and long-term measures so that not even a drop of water flows to Pakistan. Desilting of rivers will begin soon to facilitate diversion.”
The announcement was not just symbolic; it was a strategic message that acts of terror would have tangible geopolitical consequences. Water, long treated as a neutral resource under the Indus Waters Treaty, was now being repositioned as an instrument of national policy.
Government Advisory on Media Reporting
In parallel with policy shifts, the Indian government also issued an advisory through the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting. The notification urged all media platforms — including digital and social media — to exercise restraint in reporting on defence operations. It specifically cautioned against the use of “sources-based” reporting or live coverage of military movement, warning that premature disclosures could compromise national security and operational effectiveness. As someone who has worked closely with media guidelines for years, I see this as a necessary yet delicate balance between press freedom and national interest.
Pakistan’s Counteractions
Pakistan reacted swiftly. Its Foreign Office issued a statement accusing India of “weaponizing water” and warned that “unilateral abrogation of international treaties would invite serious repercussions.”
In addition to threatening to hold the Simla Agreement in abeyance, Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian aircraft and suspended trade ties. These escalations reflected the deepening mistrust between the two countries, with decades-old diplomatic agreements now hanging by a thread.
The Indus Waters Treaty: Origins, Provisions, and Importance
Understanding the Indus Waters Treaty is key to grasping why its suspension by India is such a historic move. Over the years, through my work in media and strategy, I have seen how critical resource-sharing agreements can stabilize fragile relationships — and how quickly their disruption can signal deep strategic shifts.
Background and Signing of the 1960 Treaty
The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed on September 19, 1960, in Karachi between India and Pakistan. The historic treaty was brokered with the World Bank serving as both mediator and guarantor.
At the time, tensions between the two nations were high, and water access was a major source of potential conflict. The World Bank’s intervention1 helped craft a framework that divided the waters of the Indus River system.
The treaty allocated the eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej — largely to India, while granting Pakistan control over the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.
This agreement was hailed as a landmark in international diplomacy, enabling both countries to meet their agricultural and domestic needs without descending into further disputes over water rights.
Until recent developments, the Indus Waters Treaty had withstood the test of time. It remained intact through three major wars between India and Pakistan — in 1965, 1971, and during the 1999 Kargil conflict. Standing as a rare example of resilience amidst recurring hostilities.
Key Features of the Treaty
At its core, the Indus Waters Treaty provided a detailed blueprint for managing river flows between India and Pakistan. India retained unrestricted use of the eastern rivers, while Pakistan enjoyed control over the western rivers. However, the treaty permitted India to use the western rivers for non-consumptive purposes such as domestic needs, irrigation, storage within prescribed limits, and hydroelectric power generation.
To manage disagreements, the treaty established the Permanent Indus Commission, with representatives from both India and Pakistan. If bilateral efforts failed, disputes could be escalated to a Neutral Expert, and in more complex cases, taken to a Court of Arbitration. This structured, multi-tiered mechanism played a key role in the treaty’s enduring resilience.
Why the Indus Waters Treaty Has Been Called a “Success Story”
What makes the Indus Waters Treaty unique is its resilience. Despite full-scale wars in 1965 and 1971, the Kargil conflict in 1999, and repeated cross-border tensions, the treaty held firm. Both India and Pakistan continued to honor its terms even when diplomatic relations were otherwise frozen. For over sixty years, it was considered one of the most successful examples of water diplomacy in the world — a rare case where cooperation outlasted conflict.
Today, however, its suspension marks a profound shift. These developments send a clear message: even the most resilient frameworks can collapse when trust breaks down completely. Indian policymakers have also expressed growing frustration with the treaty’s limitations in today’s context.
Despite the treaty’s historical significance as a cooperative agreement, India argues that it disproportionately benefits Pakistan, complicates project approvals, and inadequately addresses modern challenges like climate change- South Asian Voices
This combination of national security concerns and structural imbalances has reignited debate over the treaty’s relevance . Not just as a symbol of diplomacy, but as a functional agreement in the modern geopolitical landscape.
The Shimla Agreement: Historical Context and Provisions
In understanding today’s diplomatic tensions, it’s important to look back at how agreements like the Shimla Agreement came into being. Over the years, in my professional work studying regional geopolitics, I have realized that peace treaties often represent more than just written words; they reflect the fragile hopes of nations recovering from conflict.
The 1972 Agreement: Post-1971 Bangladesh War
Signed on July 2, 1972, the Shimla Agreement emerged as a pivotal accord between India and Pakistan following the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War.
This was a war that dramatically altered South Asia’s political landscape. Leading to the creation of Bangladesh and the surrender of over 93,000 Pakistani soldiers — one of the largest military capitulations since World War II.
The meeting between Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and Pakistan’s newly appointed leader, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, in Shimla was intense. Both leaders were under immense domestic and international pressure to craft a roadmap that would stabilize the region and avoid future conflicts. The resulting agreement was built on mutual promises to resolve issues peacefully through bilateral negotiations.
Key Elements of the Simla Agreement
The Simla Agreement, signed in the aftermath of the 1971 war, aimed to create a durable framework for peace and mutual respect between India and Pakistan. It was built on foundational principles intended to de-escalate military tensions and promote dialogue-driven resolution.
- Peaceful Settlement: Both nations agreed to resolve disputes without the use of force and to engage in bilateral negotiations as the primary method of conflict resolution.
- Redefining the Border: The ceasefire line established after the 1947–48 war was officially redesignated as the Line of Control (LoC).
- Mutual Respect: The agreement emphasized respect for each other’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and political independence.
Together, these elements positioned the Simla Agreement as more than a truce. It was envisioned as a roadmap toward long-term peace and normalized relations in South Asia.
Fragility and Violation History
Despite the high hopes surrounding it, the Shimla Agreement’s promises have often been fragile in practice. The most glaring violation came during the 1999 Kargil Conflict, when Pakistani soldiers crossed the LoC into Indian territory, reigniting conflict in the region.
Since then, ceasefire violations along the LoC have become frequent, with both nations blaming each other for provocations. The LoC, meant to be a line of peace, has more often resembled a line of simmering tension. In today’s context, Pakistan’s threat to suspend the Shimla Agreement carries serious consequences, raising questions about the future of bilateral dispute resolution mechanisms.
Legal and Diplomatic Implications of Suspending These Treaties
When nations move to suspend long-standing agreements, it’s rarely just a legal question — it is often a political statement with global consequences. Through my years of studying international relations, I have seen how even technical legal provisions can trigger major shifts in diplomacy. India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and Pakistan’s threat to abandon the Simla Agreement must be examined through both legal and strategic lenses.
Can India Legally Suspend the Indus Waters Treaty?
Legally speaking, India’s move can be debated. Those supporting the suspension argue that the principle of self-defense justifies action. International law recognizes the doctrine of rebus sic stantibus. The Pahalgam terror attack and ongoing cross-border threats could be cited as such a change.
However, there are counterarguments. The Indus Waters Treaty is registered with the United Nations, adding a layer of international oversight. Moreover, the treaty names the World Bank as a neutral guarantor. Ideally, if either side wishes to modify or suspend the treaty, it must do so through established mechanisms. India’s step could invite criticism from global institutions concerned about treaty sanctity.
Pakistan’s Threat on Simla Agreement: Consequences
Pakistan’s retaliatory move to place the Simla Agreement in abeyance carries equally serious and far-reaching consequences. The Simla Agreement forms the basis for recognizing the Line of Control (LoC), the de facto border between India and Pakistan in Jammu and Kashmir.
If Pakistan unilaterally suspends the agreement, it risks destabilizing the LoC framework. Possibly leading to escalations or disputes over territory once again. Moreover, abandoning the commitment to bilateral resolution, could undermine peace talks. It may push the conflict back onto global forums— a move India has traditionally resisted.
Pakistan’s Legal and Diplomatic Strategy: A Four-Point Plan
While India’s move was strategic and immediate, Pakistan is now preparing a structured legal response. In my years of observing bilateral disputes, I’ve seen that such diplomatic escalations often evolve in waves.
In an interview with Reuters, Pakistan’s Minister of State for Law and Justice, Aqeel Malik, outlined the country’s developing four-pronged strategy. The minister states:
Legal strategy consultations are almost complete. We are pursuing all appropriate and competent forums to approach. The plan includes action before the Permanent Court of Arbitration and the International Court of Justice, possibly citing violations of the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties.
He further added: “The treaty cannot be ended unilaterally. There is no such provision within the Indus Waters Treaty.” Additionally, Malik confirmed that Islamabad is considering raising the issue at the United Nations Security Council, alongside the legal avenues. It’s clear that Pakistan is actively preparing for a long-haul legal and diplomatic confrontation — a sharp contrast to the swift and unilateral Indian action that began with the treaty suspension.
This four-point plan also reflects how deeply embedded the Indus Waters Treaty is in regional geopolitics, and how its unraveling could drive new precedents in international water-sharing frameworks.
Bilateral and Multilateral Fallout
Beyond India and Pakistan, the world is watching closely. The World Bank, directly linked to the Indus Waters Treaty, may step in if formal disputes arise. The United Nations could also voice concern, especially if either country escalates claims at international platforms.
Regional players such as Afghanistan and China are equally concerned. Water diplomacy, border stability, and trade routes all get affected when two nuclear-armed neighbors slip into deeper hostility. In my view, the suspension of these treaties may redefine South Asia’s security architecture in ways that will unfold for years to come.
Strategic, Political, and Economic Impacts for India and Pakistan
As a keen media observer of India-Pakistan relations over the decades, I believe the suspension of key treaties is more than a legal manoeuvre. It marks a deeper strategic shift with far-reaching implications.
The political and economic ripples are already visible, and they are likely to shape the region’s future trajectory.
Strategic Calculations
The decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty signals that water, long treated as a shared necessity, can now be viewed as a strategic asset. India’s move introduces a new policy precedent — that acts of cross-border aggression could directly impact resource-sharing agreements. In strategic circles, this recalibration could strengthen India’s bargaining power, while putting additional pressure on Pakistan to address security concerns more seriously.
For Pakistan, the threat to the Simla Agreement serves as both a warning and a reflection of frustration. It reveals a willingness to reset diplomatic rules if provoked, although doing so comes with significant risks.
Economic Implications
The immediate economic fallout includes the suspension of trade ties between the two countries. For Pakistan, the impact is significant, especially given its reliance on certain Indian goods. In Kashmir and the wider river basin regions, disruptions in water management could hurt agricultural productivity and livelihoods, complicating internal dynamics even further.
Beyond direct trade, uncertainty also hampers business confidence, border economies, and cross-border tourism initiatives that were slowly gaining ground.
The economic strain from Pakistan’s airspace closure is also being felt beyond trade. Airlines have been compelled to alter flight paths linking India with Europe, North America, and the Middle East, leading to higher fuel consumption and extended travel times.
Some routes now require additional refueling stops, while others risk cancellations. While airfare hikes may remain limited, the disruption adds another layer of complexity to India’s international connectivity and economic planning.
Infrastructure Challenges Ahead
While the political decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty is significant, executing that decision on the ground is far from straightforward. India’s current capacity to divert or hold back water from the western rivers is under limits. Only two of the four key hydroelectric projects — the Baglihar Dam and the Kishanganga Project — are operational. The Ratle and Pakal Dul projects are still progressing and will take time to come online.
Diverting or storing millions of cusecs of water 2flowing from the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum rivers requires massive structural upgrades, long-term investment, and ecological risk assessment.
We need to scale the infrastructure is fully. Till then, India’s ability to act on its strategic water policy will remain gradual. For Pakistan, this delay presents a legal and diplomatic window to prepare its own resource management strategies.
Future Diplomatic Space
Despite heightened tensions, history shows that crises can sometimes create space for renewed dialogue. After an initial hardening of positions, there may emerge opportunities for back-channel diplomacy and new negotiations, albeit under altered terms. As someone who has seen multiple diplomatic cycles, I remain cautiously hopeful that pragmatic voices on both sides will eventually seek a roadmap back to stability, even if it takes time and significant political will.
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FAQ: Indus Waters Treaty
What is the Line of Control (LoC) between India and Pakistan?
The Line of Control (LoC) is the de facto border dividing Indian- and Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir, established under the Simla Agreement as a ceasefire boundary after the 1971 war.
What does “rebus sic stantibus” mean in the context of international law?
What does “rebus sic stantibus” mean in the context of international law?
What are the implications of the Indus Waters Treaty suspension on Pakistan?
The suspension could severely affect Pakistan’s access to vital water resources from the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers, threatening agriculture, drinking water supply, and increasing geopolitical pressure during an already deepening water crisis.
What does Article 9 of the Indus Waters Treaty state?
Article 9 outlines the dispute resolution process, including the role of the Permanent Indus Commission, Neutral Expert, and the Court of Arbitration, ensuring structured mechanisms for handling disagreements between India and Pakistan.
Conclusion: A Defining Moment or a Temporary Rift?
As I reflect on the unfolding events between India and Pakistan, it is clear that we are witnessing a moment of historic significance. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and the threat to abandon the Simla Agreement go beyond tactical responses; they touch the very foundations of bilateral relations that have weathered decades of conflict and negotiation.
In my experience observing international disputes, such escalations demand not just strong leadership, but cautious diplomacy. The risks of miscalculation are real, and any misstep could destabilize not only the two nations but the entire South Asian region.
Looking ahead, I believe the future depends on whether strategic patience can prevail over emotional reactions. While the immediate environment feels tense, history also reminds us that dialogue often re-emerges from the deepest rifts. How both countries navigate this turning point will define the next chapter of their complex relationship.
Additional Resource:
- World Bank. “World Bank Role in Indus Waters Treaty.” https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/sar/brief/world-bank-role-in-indus-waters-treaty ↩︎
- Afzal, Muhammad & Ali, Sikandar & Nazeer, Aftab & Khan, Muhammad Imran & Waqas, Muhammad & Aslam, Rana & Cheema, Muhammad Jehanzeb & Nadeem, Muhammad & Saddique, Naeem & Muzammil, Muhammad & Shah, Adnan. (2022). Flood Inundation Modeling by Integrating HEC–RAS and Satellite Imagery: A Case Study of the Indus River Basin. Water. 14. 10.3390/w14192984.
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About the Author: Anuj Mahajan is a Mass Communication Specialist, ICF Certified Coach & Corporate Trainer. Motivational Speaker / NLP Lifecoach. With expertise spanning filmmaking, business coaching, motivational speaking, blog writing, and authoring, he embodies versatility and mastery across diverse fields.
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